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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and longtime strugglers rising together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still